Introduction
As members of a small delegation from the Los Angeles-based Pacific Council on International Policy, we spent a week in Israel meeting among others with politicians, retired military and intelligence officials, academics, representatives of civil society and the peace movement and finally on the West Bank with a senior representative of the PLO. We heard views in Israel from across the political spectrum from the far right to the radical left and on the West Bank, the Palestinian perspective of the current situation.
The meetings were mostly “off the record” and so I am summarizing what we heard and learned not necessarily attributing specific views to named individuals.
We were there to learn and it was quite apparent that the people we met were keen to speak and share their views particularly as we were an American delegation. We heard over and over that Israel’s #1 and sometimes only friend on the world stage, is the United States. I’m sure that many of the people we met with were keen ensure that we heard the viewpoints that underpin the fundaments of the relationship particularly between the current US and Israeli administrations. Although we asked questions, we tried to keep our own views to ourselves even if the tenor of the questions sometimes strongly pointed to our views!
Israel and the United Sates
Israelis love President Trump! That may sound like a sweeping generalization, but Israelis of all political stripes view the Trump administration as the most pro-Israel of any recent US administration and are prepared to ignore the President’s at times apparent extremism and bizarre behavior so long as he unflinchingly supports Israel both domestically and on the world stage. One official told us that he’d even carried out an informal survey among Israeli teens who expressed admiration for Trump because he’s a “strong man”. Trump defends Israel (which feels “under siege”) against what one right wing official described as “lawfare”, soft power warfare and in particular the “BDS Movement” – Boycott, Divestment & Sanctions intended to pressure Israel over its policy towards Palestinians. There was an element of “everyone hates us” paranoia, particularly from religious conservative academics we met. We heard much support for the recent decisions by the Trump administration to withdraw from and cut funding to international organizations that are considered to be anti-Israel
Trump’s decision to recognize all of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and move the US embassy there was a very popular one among Israelis. At this time though the embassy move is more cosmetic than anything else. The nameplate has been changed on what was the US consulate in Jerusalem, but as the building is not rated for secure communication and is far too small to accommodate the embassy staff, in reality nothing has changed. Land needs to be secured and a new embassy built and according to one US official we met, that’s at least ten years off!
Israelis are puzzled by the waning support of their country by secular Jews in the US. At the time we arrived, there was much coverage in Israeli media of the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre. The right wing media (for instance the Jerusalem Post) in opinion pieces, expressed puzzlement and dismay over attacks on Trump by some in the US Jewish community following the synagogue attack. Of course it doesn’t help, that religious leaders of the “official” Jewish establishment in Israel, the ultra-orthodox, can’t even bring themselves to acknowledge that Reform and Conservative Jews in the US are actually Jewish. While expressing the obvious outrage at what happened, Israel’s Ashkenazi Chief Rabbi couldn’t even bring himself to call the site of the massacre a “synagogue”. It’s perhaps worth mentioning at this point that the senior PLO leader we met made a very telling comment about Israel in relation to attempts at reaching a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: “they can’t even agree amongst themselves who is a Jew”
Israel and its Arab Neighbors
The military and intelligence experts we met with are unanimous: Israel is now more secure than at any time since the State’s founding in 1948. There are three reasons for this:
· The strength and professionalism of Israel’s armed forces and its advanced weaponry mostly supplied by the US
· The expertise and sophistication of Israel’s intelligence apparatus
· Israel’s relationship with its Arab neighbors
The first two are self-evident and are not a surprise to anyone. The strength of Israel’s increasingly friendly relationship with its Arab neighbors was a surprise though. There has been peace with Egypt since 1979 and with Jordan since 1994. Peace has not only eliminated the threat of military confrontation, but also provided a “peace dividend” in the form intelligence and some economic cooperation. One retired senior military intelligence official said that he had known Egypt’s President el-Sisi for many years and called him “my friend”. Israel appreciates a “strong man” in Egypt and clearly was not sorry to see the back of the Muslim Brotherhood-led government which el-Sisi overthrew.
There is some economic cooperation between Israel and Jordan, particularly around the contentious issue of water. We did hear though that the two countries are cooperating on the building of a desalination plant which will provide fresh water to both. The run-off from this plant will be pumped into the Dead Sea whose level is dropping in part because of climate change and in part because of increasing industrialization on both the Israeli and Jordanian banks. And of course as we experienced, the land crossing from Jordan to Israel is these days pretty straightforward.
There are no formal relations or exchanges between Israel and the other Arab countries in the region. However just before we arrived, Prime Minister Netanyahu had paid a visit to the Sultan of Oman, not announced in advance but greeted with much enthusiasm and some optimism for the future after his return home. There are also informal contacts particularly with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, although we’re told that these take place on neutral territory.
Israel and Iran
Relations between Israel, the Arab world and Iran can best be summed up by the old adage: “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. Just about everyone we met with in Israel describes Iran as the major threat to Israel – some but not all, describing the threat as “existential”. We heard less concern expressed about Iran’s capability to develop nuclear weapons – worst case scenario, a long-term threat. The short/medium-term threat from Iran is their encirclement of Israel, partly via proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza – and partly via direct Iranian military build-up in Syria and Iraq. Israel’s vaunted “Iron Dome” is effective defense against occasional missiles fired by Hezbollah, but what concerns Israel is the sheer number of “smart” missiles being aimed at the country particularly from southern Lebanon and Syria which if launched could overwhelm the country’s defenses. Israel has already launched pre-emptive strikes against Iranian positions in Syria and will not hesitate to do so again.
Ironically, Iran’s #1 strategic enemy in the region is not Israel, but Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. Israel is of little or no strategic interest to Iran; the enmity is purely driven by the religious fanaticism of Iran’s ruling clerics and their supporters. (One comment that I did hear in Iran is that the enmity towards Israel is driven by Iran’s concern for “oppressed people” viz., the Palestinians. My guess is that the clerics use this as an explanation to ordinary Iranians - not the religious fanatics – to keep them onside. The irony of course is that Palestinians are Sunnis, the other “big enemy” of the Iranian Shia fanatics).
Israel and the Palestinians – “It’s Complicated”
The relationship between Israel and the Palestinians, or more accurately between Jews and Palestinians, is arguably the root of most, if not all of the turbulence in this region of the world for the past 100 years. Or at least until the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the botched US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 changed the dynamics of the region. Ostensibly, in times past, The Arab states in the region supported the Palestinian cause, but these days the Arabs seem to have largely lost interest in the Palestinians.
Making matters even more complex (how is that even possible?) Palestinians themselves are divided between the Fatah/PLO led West Bank and Hamas led Gaza. Hamas, branded as a terrorist organization is shunned by almost everyone, with both of the borders of Gaza – Egypt and Israel – sealed, leaving around 2 million people cut off (nobody we heard from knows the exact number). From the Israeli side we hear that Israel has no interest in trying to take over Gaza – they understand that to be a no-win situation. Likewise we hear from a former Israeli military intelligence official who has close ties with the Egyptian leadership, that Egypt also has no desire to take over Gaza - “never, never, never”, is their response. On the other hand, we hear from the PLO that there can be no settlement with Israel that doesn’t include Gaza
Meanwhile, some 3 million Palestinians live in 150 non-contiguous enclaves on the West Bank, including cities like Ramallah, Nablus and Jericho and a whole bunch of smaller towns and villages including “tourist destinations” such as Bethlehem. Israel has fragmented the West Bank into three zones: Areas A, B & C. Much of the West Bank is dotted with Jewish settlements both legal (sanctioned by the government) and illegal (mostly the ultra-orthodox and Jewish fundamentalists) designated “Area C” and is under both Israeli administrative and security control. Area A, under Palestinian administrative and security control comprises of cities, towns & villages populated by Palestinians. Area B is mostly areas surrounding Areas A – transition zones under Palestinian administrative control but Israeli security control
The so-called “separation barrier”, in some sections a massive wall and in others, a barbed-wire topped fence snakes its way around the West Bank. On some maps this is shown as the “red line” to distinguish it from the “green line” which was the pre-1967 border between Israel and Jordan. The “red line” now separates de facto Israel from the West Bank and Jewish settlements from their Palestinian neighbors.
There are numerous checkpoints particularly on the West Bank edge of Jerusalem. Israeli-registered vehicles pass through with barely a glance while Palestinian registered vehicles which have to pass through specified checkpoints are subject to a lot of scrutiny and frequently very long delays.
Israelis are prohibited from entering Areas A at least without special permission. We drove into the Palestinian capital, Ramallah in an Israeli registered bus, but with a Palestinian guide and armed security personnel in vehicles in front and behind.
Two State or One State Solution
The official international line and at least until fairly recently, the official Israeli government line is a Two State Solution. That is a predominantly Jewish State of Israel and a separate, independent State of Palestine including the West Bank and Gaza. There even seems to have been times when the two sides were close to an agreement. Saeb Eerkat, the senior PLO official who we met and who has been the Chief Palestinian Negotiator for a long time tells us he was close to an agreement with Tzipi Livni when she was Israel’s Foreign Minister in 2009. And then a General Election returned Benjamin Netanyahu to power….
Left-of-centre politicians and the Peace Movement (and probably much secular public opinion) still favour a two-state solution as the only way to preserve Israel as a democratic Jewish state and provide Palestinians with the right of self-government. The PLO (but unfortunately not Hamas) is prepared to acknowledge the right of the State of Israel to exist and to renounce violence. The biggest challenges remain determining where the border should run, the status of Jerusalem, including access to the holy sites and the right of return of Palestinian refugees mostly from Jordan.
Where should the border run? In the company of Dr Shaul Arieli, a retired military commander, an experienced negotiator for the Israeli side under several administrations and one of Israel’s leading experts on the conflict and the borders, we visit a couple of lookouts from the Israeli side towards the West Bank. With the help of detailed maps and much pointing, Dr Arieli attempts to explain where the Green Line, the Red Line, the Separation Barrier run as well as the area’s topographical features which Israel considers critical to its security. All of this, down to valley, field and street level need to be taken into consideration in negotiations around an eventual border
Right-of-center politicians and their supporters argue for a One State Solution, “democratic” and everyone having equal rights. Even if this were to be acceptable to Palestinians (and we do hear that this solution is becoming increasingly popular among younger, educated Palestinians) the devil is very much in the detail. In a unified state, a very substantial minority would not be Jewish. The birthrate among Palestinians has traditionally been higher than the Jewish population which could mean in time that Jews would be in the minority and in a democratic system, could loose control. The counter-argument to this is that the birth rate is falling among Palestinians, particularly as women are becoming more educated and going out to work, while that among the Jewish population is rising – although predominantly in the ultra-orthodox section of the community.
And therein lies the problem with a One State Solution. How could Israel remain both Jewish and Democratic? To compound the problem further, many in the rapidly growing ultra-orthodox population won’t even recognize the legitimacy of the State of Israel as it currently exists because in their eyes, the Jewish state, including Judaea and Samaria (i.e., the West Bank) should be for Jews only. I will touch on this more in a later section.
Does the Trump administration and more specifically Jared Kushner have a peace plan? Yes was the answer we hear from some officials. Have any of them seen it? Well not actually! One suggestion is that a completely different approach is being taken. Rather than building a plan from the ground up, Kushner perhaps in collaboration with his buddy, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia will put together a detailed plan and present that to the two (?) sides as a basis for negotiation. It will be an uphill battle. After getting off to a promising start with the incoming Trump administration, the Palestinians have now cut off all contact. Saeb Erekat told us that prior to Trump’s recent decisions, he had met 37 times with members of the administration (including three times with Trump himself). The relationship collapsed the day of Trump’s announcements regarding the status of Jerusalem and the embassy move. What further heightened the Palestinian’s distrust of Trump is that Kushner had assured Eerkat just the evening before that the US would not make any unilateral moves!!
A peaceful lasting solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict seems as distant as ever….
Israel’s Domestic Politics
We met with several members of the Knesset, supporters of the Settler Movement and their political opposites, representatives of the Peace Movement.
The towering figure of Israeli politics is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There will likely be a general election in Israel in 2019 but nobody we heard from, whether supporters or detractors seemed to have any doubt that he will once again come out on top – this despite being surrounded by a series of personal scandals (his wife is currently on trial for corruption and Netanyahu himself is under investigation). The opposition to Netanyahu’s Likud Party is fragmented and there is no other politician with his experience and charisma. Almost certainly, Likud will not win an outright majority and Netanyahu will once again have to cobble together a coalition. The big question is whether centre-left and left parties will do will enough to be feasible coalition partners and drag Netanyahu back towards the middle, or whether as is now the case, Netanyahu has to turn to the right and far right, religious and ultra-religious parties for support.
Depending on definition, the ultra-religious now account for up to 20% of Israel’s population and growing (we heard figures ranging from 12-20%). Netanyahu’s government encourages Jewish Israelis to have more children and the ultra-religious are certainly responding to that call among whom 9-12 children is not uncommon. This segment is becoming increasingly dominant in Israeli life, particularly the social aspects such as marriage and divorce and strict observance of Shabbat. At least one government minister has resigned over whether road repairs can be carried out on Saturday! The ultra-orthodox vehemently oppose a two state solution, would happily see Palestinians disenfranchised or better yet, completely expelled from what they believe to be God-given Jewish land.
One of the biggest concessions to the ultra-orthodox community is that unlike every other Israeli, they don’t have to serve in for a period in the Israeli military (the IDF) after leaving school. Attempts have been made to change the law which allows them to dodge the draft but this remains a very controversial issue. A big shame – not only are they not contributing to the society that supports them, but the younger generation are missing out on a lot of opportunities in the Israel of the future – more below
I don’t think it unfair to say that many in the ultra-orthodox community would like to see Israel turned into a Jewish theocracy and are doing everything they can to achieve that goal.
Israel and the Future
As already discussed, Israel is now more secure within its de facto borders than it has been since the State was created. They are more-or-less at peace and more-or-less friends with most of their Arab neighbors if for no other reason to combat the threat they all feel from Iran. Netanyahu may not be the world’s most loved or admired leader, but as we heard, he is now able to pick up the phone and talk to just about any other world leader. Israeli politicians are frequent visitors to Moscow as well as Washington and relations with China, India and a lot of African countries are good. Netanyahu was in Oman just before we arrived, a visit that caused much buzz in Israel. An Israeli team participated in an international sporting event in Abu Dhabi where Israeli flags were flown and the national anthem played – unthinkable not so long ago.
The Israel Defense Force, its technology, weaponry and intelligence support are vastly superior to anything else in the region including Iran. We heard from a couple of retired military/intelligence officials that the defense establishment is still smarting from the near disaster of 1973, when Arab forces launched a surprise attack on Israel on Yom Kippur. Intelligence had picked up that something was afoot, but the military establishment and government totally underestimated the strength of the Arab forces. They are determined that such a mistake will never be repeated.
All Israelis (except the ultra-orthodox!), male and female are required to serve in the IDF after finishing school and most do so with great pride and commitment. The cohesive benefits to the country and Israeli society in general are self-evident. One less visible benefit are the connections and networking that military service provides. As one young tech entrepreneur told us through this network, with a couple of phone calls he can reach just about anybody in the country.
And hi-tech is very much Israel’s future (Israel – the “Start-up Nation”). Tel Aviv and the neighboring city of Herzliya (“Silicon Wadi”) are the center of Israel’s growing and very successful tech industry. We hear that there are in excess of 6000 start-up’s (1 for every 1700 citizens), 150 venture capital funds, 350 R&D centers, the highest number of engineers per capita of any country in the world….etc, etc! Much of this is a consequence of a highly educated and creative population. But a lot of the success and drive comes from the Cyber Intelligence Unit of the IDF, the so-called Unit 8200. This unit takes the best and brightest recruits and trains them in cyber intelligence and cyber warfare, encourages creativity and risk-taking. Many of the unit after finishing their IDF service go on to found or work in tech start-ups. Perhaps the most widely known and used piece of technology that emerged from this path is the Waze Navigation & Live Traffic App. Also a bright spot for the future, while in the model West Bank town of Rawabi we hear that Silicon Wadi tech companies are out-sourcing some development activities to young Palestinian techies. Part of the Rawabi dream is to develop its own hi-tech industry.
Summary
Bright spots:
· Israel is more secure within its de facto borders than at any time in its history
· Israel’s relations, formal and informal with its Arab neighbors are at an all time high and seemingly continuing to improve
· The Israel Defense Force and intelligence services are far and away the strongest in the region.
· Compulsory service in the IDF (the ultra-religious aside) is an enormous benefit and strength for Israel
· The hi-tech industry, “Silicon Wadi”, Israel “the Start-up Nation” is Israel’s future
· Increasingly secular and liberal, Tel Aviv and Herzylia
· The idealistic, “futuristic” West Bank Palestinian city of Rawabi, an economic model for a future Palestine where among other initiatives, a hi-tech hub is developing
Dark spots:
· The medium and long-term threat posed by Iran and its surrogates
· Resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict is as far away now as it’s ever been
· The mess that is Gaza (conflict flared up again soon after our visit, following which Defense Minister and leader of the right wingYisrael Beiteinuparty resigned and walked out of Netanyahu’s coalition)
· The expansion, rise and increasing influence in all aspects of Israeli life of the ultra-religious, ultra nationalist far right wing community
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Who did we meet with (an incomplete list)?
In Israel and West Bank Settlements
Bar-Ilan University: Prof Adam Ferziger (Center for Research on Judaism in Israel and North America); Prof Gerald Steinberg (Dept of Political Studies)
Major General (retd) Amos Gilead: former Director of Policy & Political-Military Affairs at the Ministry of Defence; former IDF Chief of the Intelligence Research & Analysis Division, currently executive director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at IDC Herzliya, Israel’s first private university
Dr Joseph Draznin:Director General, Ministry for Regional Cooperation and former Assistant Deputy Director General for Foreign Affairs & Arms Control at the Ministry of Defense
Major General (retd) Amos Yadlin:Director, Institute for National Security Studies and former head of Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate
Silicon Wadi Entrepreneurs, ex-Unit 8200:Avidor Bartov, co-Founder & CTO, Axonius; Si Buchbut, co-Founder & Director, TechLift
Knesset:Rabbi Yehuda Glick, MK, Likud Party and leader of HaLiba, a coalition of groups dedicated to "reaching complete and comprehensive freedom and civil rights for Jews on the Temple Mount" – which means unfettered access to all areas of the Temple Mount including rebuilding a Jewish sacrificial altar in or adjacent to the Dome of the Rock. He has been barred from visiting the Temple Mount itself several times over the years due to the potentially incendiary nature of his activism campaigns and has also survived an assassination attempt
Knesset: Nurit Koren, MK, Likud Party. A daughter of Yemenite Jewish immigrants and a campaigner for the rights of “kidnapped Yemenite children” taken from the mothers often at birth.
Knesset: Michael Oren, MK,Deputy Prime Minister and member of the centrist Kulanu Party, formerly Israel’s ambassador to the US. After the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre, Oren wrote an OpEd for the New York Times decrying the failure of Israel to recognize Conservative and Reform Jews in the US as real Jews, even though they (and similar Jews in the rest of the diaspora) are Israel’s largest benefactors (contributing an amount equivalent to Israel’s annual defense budget). Oren wrote: ”Though steadily growing, the Reform and Conservative communities in Israel remain small, while the Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox together account for 20 percent of the electorate and are rapidly expanding. Most of them view the liberal strains of Judaism as a heresy”. Oren tells us that Israel’s recently enacted “Nation State” law obligates Israel to recognize all Jews!
Leslie M. Tsou:Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Jerusalem/Tel Aviv
Dr Uri Resnick:diplomat and expert on asymmetric territorial conflicts and post-independence conflict patterns. On loan from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dr Resnick is currently a policy advisor to the Minister of Defense and teaches at IDC, Herzliya Israel’s first private university where he is a colleague of Maj. Gen. Amos Gilead
Amb Daniel B. Shapiro:The US ambassador to Israel from 2011-17 and currently Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University
Sima Shine:Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Research Studies, formerly Deputy Director-General of the Ministry for Strategic Affairs; head of research at the Intelligence Division of Mossad
Dr Shaul Arieli:formerly Commander of the Northern Brigade in Gaza; under various administrations, head of the Interim Agreement Administration and head of the Peace Administration. Now a leading expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the borders of Israel and the separation barrier
Various members of the Peace Movement: including Yariv Oppenheimer, immediate past Executive Director of Peace Now; leaders of the WomenWagePeace movement
West Bank Settlers:In Efrat, Lenny Ben-David, former Deputy Chief of Mission at Israel’s embassy in Washington, D.C; in Kfar Etzion and Sadnat Shiluv
On the West Bank
Bashar Masri:founder and creative force behind the development of the futuristic city of Rawabi
Dr. Saeb Erekat:Secretary-General of the PLO and Head of the Negotiation Department in the PLO. Dr. Erekat has been at the center of negotiations with Israel for the better part of the last two decades. He was involved in crafting the Oslo accords in 1995 and was an active participant in most Israeli-Palestinian meetings held under U.S. auspices. Dr. Erekat is also an elected Member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, representing the Jericho district